Global warming understanding the forecast 2nd edition pdf download

Canada markets open in 1 hour 28 minutes. DOW 35, CMC Crypto 1, FTSE 7, Read full article. November 15, , a. Our goal is to create a safe and engaging place for users to connect over interests and passions. In order to improve our community experience, we are temporarily suspending article commenting. Latest Stories. Yahoo Canada Style. Ask questions and discuss with classmates, but never copy an answer without providing your own synthesis and interpretation.

When helping your peers, do so by discussing and explaining, not simply providing an answer to be copied. You are on your honor not to use them. Never to share your own homework solutions or model answers with other students now or in the future.

You are welcome to use textbook resources and internet resources that teach general principles Wikipedia and Khan academy are examples of resources that teach general principles. If you follow a line of reasoning from a textbook, reference it properly. You may want to revisit the references later. The reference will also help the instructor understand your approach. If you are unable to attend a class session please review the recording.

After viewing the recorded session please email me and summarize what you heard and saw, add your contribution and questions. If you are ill or caring for someone who is : I am here to support your success during these challenging times, too. Either use the default values, or enter your own estimates, and click "do the math" to generate the model's output.

The model produces seven output plots. The last four are the four input terms: population, GDP per capita, energy consumed per unit of GDP energy intensity , and carbon emissions per unit of energy consumed carbon efficiency. The second and third plots are useful for exploring the implications for stabilising atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 are various levels.

The CO 2 concentrations that might result from the predicted carbon emissions according to one particular carbon cycle model, the ISAM model are shown in red in the second plot, compared with various alternative evolutions that lead to concentrations stabilising at various levels from to ppm. The third plot indicates the additional carbon-free energy required to bring your particular scenario on to a path that stabilises at various levels from to ppm if your scenario is already lower than some of the stabilisation pathways, then the third plot will show negative values, indicating that we could actually emit more carbon and still reach a particular stabilisation target.

Watch out! Exercise: Typically, population and wealth are expected to show long-term growth, while the energy needed to support this economic growth and the carbon emitted in generating the energy are expected to show relative declines. For most scenarios, and certainly for the default values, the population and economic growth exceed the reductions in energy intensity and carbon efficiency, resulting in continuing growth of emissions and CO 2 concentrations that do not begin to stabilise during the 21st century.

The EU's target is to avoid global temperatures rising more than 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels, a target which could perhaps be achieved though not definitely, because it depends how sensitive the climate is if the total greenhouse-gas forcing is equivalent to ppm of CO 2 or lower. Suppose the world population levels out at 9 billion, GDP per person grows at 1. How fast must carbon efficiency fall if the EU's target is to be met? Vary the carbon efficiency until the CO 2 concentration in the second panel stays below ppm.

A reduction of Such a reduction would lower the carbon emitted per Terawatt of energy generated from 0. Note also that the target really requires CO 2 to be stabilised below ppm to allow for some increases of the other greenhouse gases.

It can be installed on either Windows or MacOS systems, and comes with a range of analysis and visualisation tools. Also included in the package are surface boundary condition data and forcing data to allow users to make a number of GCM experiments simulating either past or future climate changes. The aim is that research-quality GCM experiments could be undertaken by university-level students; there is technical support, a community forum for exchanging results and solutions to problems, and materials for educational exercises.

I was able to complete the task and begin a first, test simulation with EdGCM after 1 to 2 hours of work, and there is a forum where you can ask questions if you get stuck. I have not set any specific exercises to complete with EdGCM.

Again, the EdGCM software, website and instruction manual provide a range of suggested experiments and information on how to set them up. Good luck! Other GCM-based climate models: There are a number of other GCM-based climate models that are freely available for academic or personal research use.

These models are closer to the "start-of-the-art" than EdGCM, but they do not necessarily have the ease of use, community support or other elements that lend themselves to educational use that the EdGCM project provides. As such, they would require considerably more effort to master the initial phases of learning to use them.

Community Climate System Model e. This allows you to participate in a distributed computing experiment using the Met Office Hadley Centre's GCM-based climate models, which has so far as of August completed around 45 million years of climate simulation. Participating in this project does not allow you to design your own experiments, but they do provide a description of the experiments that you will perform, and scientific papers based on the results.

Exploring possible future climate change There are a number of tools to make predictions of future climate change especially in terms of global-mean temperature change. I have selected two tools that may be particularly useful or relevant, especially to MSc dissertation projects that focus on global or UK climate changes.

The first is the simple climate model MAGICC, which can be installed on Windows systems, and has an easy-to-use graphical user interface that allows you to explore uncertainty in predictions of global temperature change and how various climate policy options may mitigate the magnitude of future changes.

This is a web-based interface so it does not need installing on your computer that allows access to the UKCP09 projections of future UK climate change. Energy balance models EBM are highly simplified systems of the climate system. The global temperature is calculated by the radiation budget through the incoming energy from the Sun and … Expand. Its objective is to acquire a systemic view of the … Expand. Climate and climate change. Climate System Dynamics and Modelling.

Description of the climate system and its components 2. The energy balance, hydrological and carbon cycles 3. Modelling the climate system 4. The response of the climate system to a perturbation … Expand. Ocean Dynamics and the Carbon Cycle: Illustration credits. The oceans play a crucial role in the climate system by redistributing heat and carbon across the planet through a complex interplay of physical, chemical and biological processes.

This textbook for … Expand. Betting and belief: Prediction markets and attribution of climate change.